New tools to help predict CVD risk

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Researchers have produced a set of risk charts for 182 countries.

Researchers at the prestigious Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health have developed a set of risk prediction models to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in both high- and low-income countries.

Previously available risk models and charts were applicable only to a few high-income countries or regions. These new charts can be applied previously available areas as well as low- and middle-income countries.

In creating the charts the researchers developed two models: a laboratory-based model and an office-based model, which can be used in the absence of blood work. They found, between 85 per cent and 99 per cent of the time, the office-based risk prediction model worked as well as the laboratory-based model in characterising CVD risk. However, the office-based model underestimated the risk noticeably in diabetes patients.

The study also identified that 10-year CVD risk was lower in high-income countries than in lower- and middle-income countries, with the highest CVD risks seen in countries in Central and Southeast Asia and in Eastern Europe.

The complete set of new risk charts and the risk calculators are available online at http://www.globorisk.org .

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